3 Kommentare zu „Video English

  1. Hi … I think you made mistake. You make analogy to the green party polls, and that you can not add them up. But here is another analogy for you. If each day of the week I earn 100 euro, then by the weekend I will have earned 500 euro. So in some situations it is correct to add up daily numbers. So for covid; each day the media reports the number of new cases; these we be people who are newly infected, so it is *right* to add them up each day to arrive at cumulative numbers.

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    1. Hi,

      if every day 100 people would be infected, and 1 percent would die, 365 people would die annualy on covid19. Well, comparing it to 8 billion Humans it would be around 0,0000005%. Probably as dangerous like being struck by an asteroide.

      Situation is bad, and I am working on analysis. People are dying, and I don´t like it.

      Whish you health and a long Life,

      Richard

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    2. Yes, you can add the positive cases up, but that does not indicate the problem. Assume, 5% are infected, that would mean, in Germany, roughly 4 million people are infected (assuming a static situation). Now, if you only test 350k a week, you would need to test for 225 weeks, ie 4 years, to test everybody, to know how many people as part of the population are infected. But in the meantime, every week your positive cases go up, whereas the percentage would not change! The minimum would be to look at positive cases as a percentage of all tests, or better a statistically relevant, randomized sample, to know how many people are infected and whether that ratio changes. Current tests are diagnostic in nature, ie only people with symptoms are tested, what is not statistically relevant. And another fact, by the law of growing numbers, it will continuously take longer for the numbers to double, a measurement currently looked at more carefully, although nothing has changed. To sum up, the observation of reported positive cases is meaningless at best, and highly misleading at worst.

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